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Devise & petrole par Ph. Cahen

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  • Devise & petrole par Ph. Cahen

    Euro - Dollar


    Long term: lower for some months
    On a monthly basis, with the MACD, a bearish divergence is in progress. A poor one is also in progress with the stochastic. Prices should move lower. If PM (1.2616) does not prove to be a support, MM (1.2365) will be our next target.
    Later this year:
    - If PM proves to be a support, a new high is expected.
    - Below MM, PQ (1.1312) is our next objective.


    Medium term: lower?
    On a weekly basis, a non-crossover should be in progress with the stochastic and the MACD if MD (1.3028) does not prove to be a support. PM (1.2616) is our first target. The spread between Bollinger bands is decreasing, but the level of the volatility could be too high to see a bubble pattern afterward. With a recovery above 1.3280, PW (1.3371) and UW (1.3574) are our next resistances.


    Short term: decline
    On a daily basis, the stochastic is overbought. On Thursday, if the MACD is also overbought, a decline towards MD (1.3028) or LD (1.2713) could not be ruled out.


    Conclusion: if the daily MACD become overbought, a decline towards 1.2713 is likely.


    Dollar - Yen

    Long term: soft technical recovery
    On a monthly basis, with a crossover between the MACD and its Signal, a weak bullish divergence is in progress. MM (108.36) could be a target.

    Medium term: flat
    On a weekly basis, a non-crossover between the 7 and 23 weeks moving average could happen within some weeks. If a crossover occurs, it will be a B type. The rise which began at the end of last year should be only a technical recovery.

    Short term: flat
    On a daily basis, the spread between Bollinger bands is shrinking. The MACD is not oversold and a non-crossover between the stochastic and its moving average is likely. The crossover between the 7 and 23 days moving average is a B – type. LD (103.98) could act as a support. Our resistances are MD (105.05) and UD (106.12).

    Conclusion: the market should stay in a trading range for some weeks.





    Cable


    Quarterly trend: bullish?
    With a new high (above 1.9550) the Bollinger bands pattern is a parallels one. Prices should soar until year’s end.

    Long term: bullish as long as PM (1.8321) proves to be a support.
    On a monthly basis, as long as PM (1.8321) proves to be a support, the main objective is UM (1.9850).


    Medium term: rise towards UW (1.9511)
    On a weekly basis, a non-crossover between the 7 and 23 weeks moving average is in progress. The rise could continue. UW is flat. This is a main resistance.

    Short term: flat
    On a daily basis, the lower Bollinger band is flat. The spread between the upper and lower band is wide. Prices should stabilize as long as the MACD is not overbought. With an overbought pattern on the MACD, a decline towards MD (1.8905) is likely. Below MD, LD (1.8487) is our next target.


    Conclusion: no interest.
    Dollar – Swiss Franc


    Long term: decline
    On a monthly basis, the parabolic is always above the Bollinger moving average. The main trend is declining as long as MM (1.2534) proves to be a resistance. LM (1.1260) is our main support.

    Medium term: towards LW (1.1277).
    On a weekly basis, the stochastic is overbought and the MACD could be overbought next week. The crossover is a 2 or 3 type. The spread between the Bollinger bands is not minimal. LW (1.1277) should act as a support.
    With a close above MW (1.1744) a recovery could develop.

    Short term: trading range
    On a daily basis, the spread between the upper and lower Bollinger bands is wide and the upper band is flat. PD (1.1829) is our first resistance and MD (1.1891) the next one. 1.1574 (current low) shouls be a good support for the week ahead.



    Conclusion: market without trend for the coming week.





    Light Crude Oil (nearest future)



    Yearly trend: bullish.
    On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands are diverging. The bull trend should continue, at least until the end of 2007.


    Long term: bullish above PM (55.13)
    On a monthly basis, as long as PM (55.13) proves to be a resistance, a decline towards MM (39.86) is not ruled out. Above PM, a strong bull trend is due.


    Medium term: UW(54.02) = strong resistance
    On a weekly basis, the spread between the upper and lower Bollinger band is at its maximal level. A close above UW (54.02) is not likely. With a close above UW and a divergence between the upper and lower Bollinger band, a rise could develop. This scenario will be very bullish if a new high is done on the coming week.
    If UW proves to be a resistance, afterward, a decline towards MW (47.61) is likely.


    Short term: decline below PD (50.68)
    On a daily basis, the level of the volatility is far away from its mininmal. Below PD (50.68) a decline is expected. Below MD (48.85) our next support is LD (44.25). If PD proves to be a support, a rise towards UW is likely.


    Conclusion: bullish with a close above UW (54.02)?

  • #2
    hello,do you see indeed a boolish long term trend for oil associated with a bearish long term trend for euro/$ mr cahen?
    i know it's not a technical view but your point of view upon this history is welcome.
    thanks

    Commentaire


    • #3
      avril
      que mr cahen poste en anglais , je veux bien le comprendre , vu qu'il fait un copier , coller de son article paru sur d'autres sites , mais que toi , avril tu lui poses ta question en anglais .... je suis mdr
      ne sommes -nous pas sur un site qui s'adresse à des traders français ???

      Commentaire


      • #4
        citation :
        Citation de surfeuse

        je suis mdr



        Pas moi, je trouve ça lamentable…
        A partir de maintenant, j’ai décidé de faire tous mes posts et analyses en Serbe et de surcroît en alphabet cyrillique, oui...je trouve ça plus « fun ». Et si vous n’êtes pas contents, vous n’avez qu’a apprendre le Serbe et le cyrillique...

        Commentaire


        • #5
          Et pourquoi pas en chinois aussi (ou codé):

          #27472;#27954;- #32654;#20803;


          #38263;#24230;#26399;#38480;: #38477;#19979;#19981;#23569;#26376;
          #26377;#26376;#24230;#20381;#25818;, #33287;MACD, #19979;#36300;#20998;#27495;#36914;#23637;#20013;#26377;#12290; #33287;#36007;#23506;#20320;#26159;#36996;#36914;#23637;#20013;#33287;#38568;#27231;#12290; #20729;#26684;#25033;#35442;#34892;#21205;#26356;#20302;#12290; #22914;#26524;PM (1.2616) #19981;#35657;#26126;#26159;#26377;#25903;#25345;, #27627;#31859;(1.2365) #23559;#26159;#25105;#20497;#30340;#19979;#20491;#30446;#27161;#12290;
          #19979;#21322;#24180;:
          - #36196;#26575;#26494;PM #35657;#26126;#26159;#26377;#25903;#25345;, #26032;#19978;#27969;#34987;#26399;#26395;#26377;#12290;
          - #22312;#27627;#31859;#20043;#19979;, PQ (1.1312) #26159;#25105;#20497;#30340;#19979;#20491;#23447;#26088;#12290;


          #20013;#26399;: #26356;#20302;?
          #26377;#27599;#36913;#20381;#25818;, #26377;#38750;#22825;#27211;#25033;#35442;#26159;#36914;#23637;#20013;#33287;#38568;#27231;#21644;
          MACD #36196;#26575;#26494;MANDELEVIUM (1.3028) #19981;#35657;#26126;#26159;#26377;#25903;#25345;#12290; PM (1.2616) #26159;#25105;#20497;#30340;#31532;#19968;#20491;#30446;#27161;#12290; #20659;#25773;#22312;Bollinger #24118;#20043;#38291;#26159;#36234;#20358;#36234;#23569;#30340;, #25582;#30332;#24615;#30340;#27700;#24179;#33021;#22826;#39640;#20197;#33267;#26044;#19981;#33021;#30475;#21917;#20102;#26377;#27873;#24433;
          #27171;#24335;#20043;#24460;#12290; #33287;#26377;#35036;#25937;#22312;1.3280 #20043;#19978;, #24494;#24494;#29926;(1.3371) #20006;#19988;UW (1.3574) #26159;#25105;#20497;#30340;#19979;#25269;#25239;#12290;


          #30701;#26399;: decline
          #26377;#27599;#26085;#20381;#25818;, #38568;#27231;#26159;overbought #12290; #19968;#26143;#26399;#22235;, #36196;#26575;#26494;MACD #20006;#19988;#26159;overbought, decline #24448;MANDELEVIUM (1.3028) #26377;#37329;#23376;LD (1.2713) #19981;#33021;#26159;
          #25490;#38500;#12290;


          #32080;#35542;: #36196;#26575;#26494;#27599;#26085;MACD #25104;#28858;overbought, #26377;decline #24448;1.2713 #26159;#21487;#33021;#30340;#12290;

          Commentaire


          • #6
            Bon en Chinois ça passe pas, alors en Russe:

            Euro - #1044;#1086;#1083;#1083;#1072;#1088;


            #1058;#1077;#1088;#1084;#1080;#1085; #1076;#1083;#1080;#1085;#1099;: #1087;#1086;#1085;#1080;#1079;#1100;#1090;#1077; #1085;#1072; #1085;#1077;#1082;#1086;#1090;#1086;#1088;#1099;#1077; #1084;#1077;#1089;#1103;#1094;#1099;
            #1041;#1091;#1076;#1077;#1090; #1077;#1078;#1077;#1084;#1077;#1089;#1103;#1095;#1085;#1072;#1103; #1086;#1089;#1085;#1086;#1074;#1072;, #1089; MACD, #1084;#1077;#1076;#1074;#1077;#1078;#1077;#1077; #1088;#1072;#1089;#1093;#1086;#1078;#1076;#1077;#1085;#1080;#1077; in progress #1080;#1084;#1077;#1077;#1090;. #1057; #1073;#1077;#1076;#1085;#1099;#1084;#1080; #1086;#1076;#1085;#1086; #1090;#1072;#1082;#1078;#1077; in progress #1089; #1089;#1090;#1086;#1093;#1072;#1089;#1090;#1080;#1095;#1077;#1089;#1082;#1080;#1084;. #1062;#1077;#1085;#1099; #1076;#1086;#1083;#1078;#1085;#1099; #1076;#1074;#1080;#1085;#1091;#1090;#1100; #1073;#1086;#1083;#1077;#1077; #1085;#1080;#1079;#1082;#1086;. #1045;#1089;#1083;#1080; pm (1.2616) #1085;#1077; #1076;#1086;#1082;#1072;#1079;#1099;#1074;#1072;#1077;#1090; #1073;#1099;#1090;#1100; #1080;#1084;#1077;#1077;#1090; #1087;#1086;#1076;#1076;#1077;#1088;#1078;#1082;#1091;, #1090;#1086; #1052;#1080;#1083;#1083;#1080;#1084;#1077;#1090;#1088;#1086;#1084; (1.2365) #1073;#1091;#1076;#1077;#1090; #1085;#1072;#1096; #1086;#1095;#1077;#1088;#1077;#1076;#1085;#1072;#1103;#1072; #1079;#1072;#1076;#1072;#1095;#1072;.
            Later this year:
            - yew pm #1076;#1086;#1082;#1072;#1079;#1099;#1074;#1072;#1077;#1090; #1073;#1099;#1090;#1100; #1080;#1084;#1077;#1077;#1090; #1087;#1086;#1076;#1076;#1077;#1088;#1078;#1082;#1091;, #1087;#1088;#1077;#1076;#1087;#1086;#1083;#1086;#1078;#1077;#1085; #1085;#1086;#1074;#1099;#1081;#1072; #1074;#1099;#1089;#1096;#1080;#1081; #1091;#1088;#1086;#1074;#1077;#1085;#1100; #1082;#1091;#1088;#1089;#1086;#1074; #1072;#1082;#1094;#1080;#1081; #1080;#1084;#1077;#1077;#1090;.
            - #1055;#1086;#1076; #1052;#1080;#1083;#1083;#1080;#1084;#1077;#1090;#1088;#1086;#1084;, PQ (1.1312) #1073;#1091;#1076;#1077;#1090; #1085;#1072;#1096;#1077;#1081; #1089;#1083;#1077;#1076;#1091;#1102;#1097;#1077;#1081; #1079;#1072;#1076;#1072;#1095;#1077;#1081;.


            #1057;#1088;#1077;#1076;#1089;#1090;#1074; #1090;#1077;#1088;#1084;#1080;#1085;#1072;: #1085;#1080;#1079;#1082;#1086;?
            #1041;#1091;#1076;#1077;#1090; #1077;#1078;#1077;#1085;#1077;#1076;#1077;#1083;#1100;#1085;#1072;#1103; #1086;#1089;#1085;#1086;#1074;#1072;, #1080;#1084;#1077;#1077;#1090; #1085;#1086;#1085;-krossover #1073;#1099;#1090;#1100; in progress #1089; #1089;#1090;#1086;#1093;#1072;#1089;#1090;#1080;#1095;#1077;#1089;#1082;#1080;#1084;
            #1080;
            Yew MANDELEVIUM MACD (1.3028) #1085;#1077; #1076;#1086;#1082;#1072;#1079;#1099;#1074;#1072;#1077;#1090;
            #1073;#1099;#1090;#1100; #1080;#1084;#1077;#1077;#1090; #1087;#1086;#1076;#1076;#1077;#1088;#1078;#1082;#1091;. Pm (1.2616) #1073;#1091;#1076;#1077;#1090; #1085;#1072;#1096;#1072; #1087;#1077;#1088;#1074;#1072;#1103; #1094;#1077;#1083;#1100;. #1056;#1072;#1089;#1087;#1088;#1086;#1089;#1090;#1088;#1072;#1085;#1077;#1085;#1080;#1077; #1084;#1077;#1078;#1076;#1091; #1087;#1086;#1083;#1086;#1089;#1072;#1084;#1080; Bollinger #1091;#1084;#1077;#1085;#1100;#1096;#1072;#1077;#1090;, #1091;#1088;#1086;#1074;#1077;#1085;#1100; #1091;#1083;#1077;#1090;#1091;#1095;#1080;#1074;#1072;#1077;#1084;#1086;#1089;#1090;#1080; #1073;#1099;#1083; #1074; #1089;#1086;#1089;#1090;#1086;#1103;#1085;#1080;#1080; #1073;#1099;#1090;#1100; #1089;#1083;#1080;#1096;#1082;#1086;#1084; #1074;#1099;#1089;#1086;#1082; #1091;#1074;#1080;#1076;#1077;#1090;#1100;
            #1074;#1099;#1087;#1080;#1083; #1080;#1084;#1077;#1077;#1090; #1087;#1091;#1079;#1099;#1088;#1100;
            #1082;#1072;#1088;#1090;#1080;#1085;#1072; #1087;#1086;#1090;#1086;#1084;. #1057; #1080;#1084;#1077;#1077;#1090; #1089;#1087;#1072;#1089;#1077;#1085;#1080;#1077; #1085;#1072;#1076; 1.3280, #1055;#1080;#1082;#1086;#1074;#1072;#1090;#1090;#1086;#1084; (1.3371) #1080; UW (1.3574) #1073;#1091;#1076;#1091;#1090; #1085;#1072;#1096;#1080; #1089;#1083;#1077;#1076;#1091;#1102;#1097;#1080;#1077;
            #1089;#1086;#1087;#1088;#1086;#1090;#1080;#1074;#1083;#1077;#1085;#1080;#1103;.


            #1058;#1077;#1088;#1084;#1080;#1085; #1082;#1088;#1072;#1090;#1082;#1086;#1089;#1090;#1077;#1081;: #1089;#1082;#1083;#1086;#1085;#1077;#1085;#1080;#1077;
            #1041;#1091;#1076;#1077;#1090; #1077;#1078;#1077;#1076;#1085;#1077;#1074;#1085;#1072;#1103; #1086;#1089;#1085;#1086;#1074;#1072;, #1089;#1090;#1086;#1093;#1072;#1089;#1090;#1080;#1095;#1077;#1089;#1082;#1086;#1077; #1073;#1091;#1076;#1077;#1090; overbought. #1054;#1076;#1080;#1085; #1063;#1077;#1090;#1074;#1077;#1088;#1075;, yew MACD #1073;#1091;#1076;#1077;#1090; #1090;#1072;#1082;#1078;#1077; overbought, #1089;#1082;#1083;#1086;#1085;#1077;#1085;#1080;#1077; #1082; MANDELEVIUM (1.3028) #1080;#1084;#1077;#1077;#1090; #1079;#1086;#1083;#1086;#1090;#1086; ld
            (1.2713) #1085;#1077; #1089;#1084;#1086;#1075;#1083;#1086; #1073;#1099;#1090;#1100;
            #1091;#1087;#1088;#1072;#1074;#1080;#1083;#1080; #1074;#1085;#1077;.


            #1047;#1072;#1082;#1083;#1102;#1095;#1077;#1085;#1080;#1077;: yew #1077;#1078;#1077;#1076;#1085;#1077;#1074;#1085;#1086;#1077; MACD #1073;#1091;#1076;#1077;#1090; overbought, #1080;#1084;#1077;#1077;#1090; #1089;#1082;#1083;#1086;#1085;#1077;#1085;#1080;#1077; #1082; 1.2713 #1073;#1091;#1076;#1077;#1090; #1087;#1088;#1072;#1074;#1086;#1087;#1086;#1076;#1086;#1073;#1085;#1086;.

            Commentaire


            • #7
              Passe pas non plus en Russe, en Français:

              Euro - dollar


              Long terme : abaissez pendant quelques mois
              Sur une base mensuelle, avec le MACD, une divergence baissière est en marche. Pauvre est également en marche avec le stochastique. Les prix devraient se déplacer plus bas. Si P.M. (1.2616) ne s'avère pas être un appui, Le millimètre (1.2365) sera notre prochaine cible.
              À la fin de cette année :
              - si le P.M. s'avère être un appui, une nouvelle haute est prévue.
              - Au-dessous du Millimètre, PQ (1.1312) est notre prochain objectif.


              Moyen terme : inférieur ?
              Sur une base hebdomadaire, un non-croisement devrait être en marche avec le stochastique et le
              MACD si MD (1.3028) ne s'avère pas être un appui. P.M. (1.2616) est notre première cible. La diffusion entre les bandes de Bollinger diminue, mais le niveau de la volatilité a pu être trop élevé pour voir une
              bulle modeler après. Avec un rétablissement au-dessus de 1.3280, Le picowatt (1.3371) et les UW (1.3574) sont nos prochaines
              résistances.


              Court terme : déclin
              Quotidiennement, le stochastique est overbought. Jeudi, si le MACD est également overbought, un déclin vers MD (1.3028) ou LD (1.2713) ne pourrait pas être
              éliminé.


              Conclusion : si les MACD quotidiens deviennent overbought, un déclin vers 1.2713 est probable.



              Yessssssss, heu non pardon Ouiiiiiii

              Commentaire


              • #8
                bonsoir,
                "avril tu lui poses ta question en anglais .... je suis mdr
                ne sommes -nous pas sur un site qui s'adresse à des traders français ???"

                ne te fache pas surfeuse.ja suis pacifiste:la remarque de postes en anglais sur un site de traders français a été deja abordée concernant mr cahen.on connait sa reponse.si mr cahen veut communiquer en anglais sur ce site n'en faisons pas un drame si ça peut apporter un plus au site.

                quant a moi je ne suis pas d'avis du boycot de toute file sur ce site qui ne soit pas dans la langue Française.mais si les interventions en anglais derangent vraiment alors je ne ferai plus l'effort de rafraichir les qq connaissances d'anglais qui me restent.
                mr cahen a une vision bullish long terme sur le petrole en mm temps qu'une vision longt terme bearish sur la parité euro /$(qui l'a rappelé a propos du decompte elliotiste que tu as posté il y a qq temps)ça me parait un peu en contradiction avec la tendance poursuivi par les deux vecteurs sus-cités ces dernieres années.je ne suis expert ni en fondamental ni en at si mr cahen peut eclairer ma lanterne en français ,en anglais ou en serbes quel est le probleme?(sauf qu'en serbe je demanderai une traduction a mr abyss s'il veut bien.
                allez keep cool et bonne fin de weekend

                Commentaire


                • #9
                  citation :
                  Citation de abyss

                  Pas moi, je trouve ça lamentable…
                  A partir de maintenant, j’ai décidé de faire tous mes posts et analyses en Serbe et de surcroît en alphabet cyrillique, oui...je trouve ça plus « fun ». Et si vous n’êtes pas contents, vous n’avez qu’a apprendre le Serbe et le cyrillique...



                  Avril, pardon pour l’ambiguïté de mon post, mais celui-ci ne te concerne nullement, le « lamentable » était destiné à Mr Cahen. Je comprend% très bien d’ailleurs qu’il fasse ses analyses en Anglais car son Français est incompréhensible ( voir le GLB). Mais d’après ce que je vois, son Anglais n’est pas meilleur……. Je crois que le Serbe s’impose alors.

                  Commentaire


                  • #10
                    L'avantage avec Ph. Cahen c'est que depuis qu'il poste en Anglais on reste un peu plus dans le brouillard tant c'est ces analyses sont surprenantes mais il a au moins le mérite de prendre positions sur les marchés - Jean paul.

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                    • #11

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                      • #12

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