Euro - Dollar
Long term: lower for some months
On a monthly basis, with the MACD, a bearish divergence is in progress. A poor one is also in progress with the stochastic. Prices should move lower. If PM (1.2616) does not prove to be a support, MM (1.2365) will be our next target.
Later this year:
- If PM proves to be a support, a new high is expected.
- Below MM, PQ (1.1312) is our next objective.
Medium term: lower?
On a weekly basis, a non-crossover should be in progress with the stochastic and the MACD if MD (1.3028) does not prove to be a support. PM (1.2616) is our first target. The spread between Bollinger bands is decreasing, but the level of the volatility could be too high to see a bubble pattern afterward. With a recovery above 1.3280, PW (1.3371) and UW (1.3574) are our next resistances.
Short term: decline
On a daily basis, the stochastic is overbought. On Thursday, if the MACD is also overbought, a decline towards MD (1.3028) or LD (1.2713) could not be ruled out.
Conclusion: if the daily MACD become overbought, a decline towards 1.2713 is likely.
Dollar - Yen
Long term: soft technical recovery
On a monthly basis, with a crossover between the MACD and its Signal, a weak bullish divergence is in progress. MM (108.36) could be a target.
Medium term: flat
On a weekly basis, a non-crossover between the 7 and 23 weeks moving average could happen within some weeks. If a crossover occurs, it will be a B type. The rise which began at the end of last year should be only a technical recovery.
Short term: flat
On a daily basis, the spread between Bollinger bands is shrinking. The MACD is not oversold and a non-crossover between the stochastic and its moving average is likely. The crossover between the 7 and 23 days moving average is a B – type. LD (103.98) could act as a support. Our resistances are MD (105.05) and UD (106.12).
Conclusion: the market should stay in a trading range for some weeks.
Cable
Quarterly trend: bullish?
With a new high (above 1.9550) the Bollinger bands pattern is a parallels one. Prices should soar until year’s end.
Long term: bullish as long as PM (1.8321) proves to be a support.
On a monthly basis, as long as PM (1.8321) proves to be a support, the main objective is UM (1.9850).
Medium term: rise towards UW (1.9511)
On a weekly basis, a non-crossover between the 7 and 23 weeks moving average is in progress. The rise could continue. UW is flat. This is a main resistance.
Short term: flat
On a daily basis, the lower Bollinger band is flat. The spread between the upper and lower band is wide. Prices should stabilize as long as the MACD is not overbought. With an overbought pattern on the MACD, a decline towards MD (1.8905) is likely. Below MD, LD (1.8487) is our next target.
Conclusion: no interest.
Dollar – Swiss Franc
Long term: decline
On a monthly basis, the parabolic is always above the Bollinger moving average. The main trend is declining as long as MM (1.2534) proves to be a resistance. LM (1.1260) is our main support.
Medium term: towards LW (1.1277).
On a weekly basis, the stochastic is overbought and the MACD could be overbought next week. The crossover is a 2 or 3 type. The spread between the Bollinger bands is not minimal. LW (1.1277) should act as a support.
With a close above MW (1.1744) a recovery could develop.
Short term: trading range
On a daily basis, the spread between the upper and lower Bollinger bands is wide and the upper band is flat. PD (1.1829) is our first resistance and MD (1.1891) the next one. 1.1574 (current low) shouls be a good support for the week ahead.
Conclusion: market without trend for the coming week.
Light Crude Oil (nearest future)
Yearly trend: bullish.
On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands are diverging. The bull trend should continue, at least until the end of 2007.
Long term: bullish above PM (55.13)
On a monthly basis, as long as PM (55.13) proves to be a resistance, a decline towards MM (39.86) is not ruled out. Above PM, a strong bull trend is due.
Medium term: UW(54.02) = strong resistance
On a weekly basis, the spread between the upper and lower Bollinger band is at its maximal level. A close above UW (54.02) is not likely. With a close above UW and a divergence between the upper and lower Bollinger band, a rise could develop. This scenario will be very bullish if a new high is done on the coming week.
If UW proves to be a resistance, afterward, a decline towards MW (47.61) is likely.
Short term: decline below PD (50.68)
On a daily basis, the level of the volatility is far away from its mininmal. Below PD (50.68) a decline is expected. Below MD (48.85) our next support is LD (44.25). If PD proves to be a support, a rise towards UW is likely.
Conclusion: bullish with a close above UW (54.02)?
Long term: lower for some months
On a monthly basis, with the MACD, a bearish divergence is in progress. A poor one is also in progress with the stochastic. Prices should move lower. If PM (1.2616) does not prove to be a support, MM (1.2365) will be our next target.
Later this year:
- If PM proves to be a support, a new high is expected.
- Below MM, PQ (1.1312) is our next objective.
Medium term: lower?
On a weekly basis, a non-crossover should be in progress with the stochastic and the MACD if MD (1.3028) does not prove to be a support. PM (1.2616) is our first target. The spread between Bollinger bands is decreasing, but the level of the volatility could be too high to see a bubble pattern afterward. With a recovery above 1.3280, PW (1.3371) and UW (1.3574) are our next resistances.
Short term: decline
On a daily basis, the stochastic is overbought. On Thursday, if the MACD is also overbought, a decline towards MD (1.3028) or LD (1.2713) could not be ruled out.
Conclusion: if the daily MACD become overbought, a decline towards 1.2713 is likely.
Dollar - Yen
Long term: soft technical recovery
On a monthly basis, with a crossover between the MACD and its Signal, a weak bullish divergence is in progress. MM (108.36) could be a target.
Medium term: flat
On a weekly basis, a non-crossover between the 7 and 23 weeks moving average could happen within some weeks. If a crossover occurs, it will be a B type. The rise which began at the end of last year should be only a technical recovery.
Short term: flat
On a daily basis, the spread between Bollinger bands is shrinking. The MACD is not oversold and a non-crossover between the stochastic and its moving average is likely. The crossover between the 7 and 23 days moving average is a B – type. LD (103.98) could act as a support. Our resistances are MD (105.05) and UD (106.12).
Conclusion: the market should stay in a trading range for some weeks.
Cable
Quarterly trend: bullish?
With a new high (above 1.9550) the Bollinger bands pattern is a parallels one. Prices should soar until year’s end.
Long term: bullish as long as PM (1.8321) proves to be a support.
On a monthly basis, as long as PM (1.8321) proves to be a support, the main objective is UM (1.9850).
Medium term: rise towards UW (1.9511)
On a weekly basis, a non-crossover between the 7 and 23 weeks moving average is in progress. The rise could continue. UW is flat. This is a main resistance.
Short term: flat
On a daily basis, the lower Bollinger band is flat. The spread between the upper and lower band is wide. Prices should stabilize as long as the MACD is not overbought. With an overbought pattern on the MACD, a decline towards MD (1.8905) is likely. Below MD, LD (1.8487) is our next target.
Conclusion: no interest.
Dollar – Swiss Franc
Long term: decline
On a monthly basis, the parabolic is always above the Bollinger moving average. The main trend is declining as long as MM (1.2534) proves to be a resistance. LM (1.1260) is our main support.
Medium term: towards LW (1.1277).
On a weekly basis, the stochastic is overbought and the MACD could be overbought next week. The crossover is a 2 or 3 type. The spread between the Bollinger bands is not minimal. LW (1.1277) should act as a support.
With a close above MW (1.1744) a recovery could develop.
Short term: trading range
On a daily basis, the spread between the upper and lower Bollinger bands is wide and the upper band is flat. PD (1.1829) is our first resistance and MD (1.1891) the next one. 1.1574 (current low) shouls be a good support for the week ahead.
Conclusion: market without trend for the coming week.
Light Crude Oil (nearest future)
Yearly trend: bullish.
On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands are diverging. The bull trend should continue, at least until the end of 2007.
Long term: bullish above PM (55.13)
On a monthly basis, as long as PM (55.13) proves to be a resistance, a decline towards MM (39.86) is not ruled out. Above PM, a strong bull trend is due.
Medium term: UW(54.02) = strong resistance
On a weekly basis, the spread between the upper and lower Bollinger band is at its maximal level. A close above UW (54.02) is not likely. With a close above UW and a divergence between the upper and lower Bollinger band, a rise could develop. This scenario will be very bullish if a new high is done on the coming week.
If UW proves to be a resistance, afterward, a decline towards MW (47.61) is likely.
Short term: decline below PD (50.68)
On a daily basis, the level of the volatility is far away from its mininmal. Below PD (50.68) a decline is expected. Below MD (48.85) our next support is LD (44.25). If PD proves to be a support, a rise towards UW is likely.
Conclusion: bullish with a close above UW (54.02)?
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