Intraday dax YM eurusd JUILLET AOUT 2019

[mobydick]

hello

[chipeur]

hello pat

merci pour le mp

PH night 418

PB night 396

[mobydick]

Sur YM la vol continue à être faible = le ressort se comprime ... attention à la sortie !

- 134 points de range depuis le début de la semaine = rien

- 43 points entre PHN/PBN ce jour = moins que rien

- la M20 a croisé à la hausse la M60 en UT1H depuis la séance du 06/06 : depuis on a testé trois fois la M60 avec succès pour les haussiers ( niveau ce jour : 27 020 )

- en cas de départ baissier, les niveaux de retracements fibos sur le dernier move haussier depuis le PB de juin :

Low	24 616
Hi	27 397
L1	26 326
L2	26 007
L3	25 687

- pour le moment en dehors des bbLines je ne vois rien qui me dit " short comme un malade" sur cette UT

- alors accumulation des algos avant bond au dessus ou distribution des mains fortes aux mains faibles avant plouf ? je n'en sais rien donc je regarde ...

Moralité : j'attends la sortie du range pour charger la mule

en UT4H

[mobydick]

sur YM en UT1H l'impulsion haussière en place depuis le 10/07 est finie : phase 1 sur Bol + M20 et 60 dans un mouchoir + bbMACD flat autour de ligne 0

[mobydick]

et pour finir : le MP avec les 3 ZSP du Sud qui ne demandent qu'à être fermées ...

A voir donc ce que les algos vont choisir ...

le POC fait résistance pour le moment mais on est passé ( légèrement ) au dessus du PHN

[chipeur]

https://www.europe1.fr/societe/un-automobiliste-condamne-pour-avoir-agresse-un-aveugle-et-son-accompagnateur-3910089

et bien voilà....

[mobydick]

HS

Il y a des jours ou dès le matin on se demande ou va s'arrêter la connerie de nos politiques qui, chaque jour, vont là ou la main de l'Homme n'a jamais mis le pied

[mobydick]

YM : short sur ML© ... par réflexe !

Stop sur PRU maintenant

Edit : le premier qui me dit que le ML© est aussi le POC-1 je lui parle plus

[chipeur]

[chipeur]

YM : short sur ML© ... par réflexe !

Stop sur PRU maintenant

Edit : le premier qui me dit que le ML© est aussi le POC-1 je lui parle plus

ca n est pas le ............?????

[mobydick]

Sorti 336 pour + 14 = croisement haussier potentiel de la 20 > 60 en UT15

[mobydick]

Quel instrument pour shorter le Footsie tranquillou ?
No Deal, we're serious this time

1. He's not even officially PM yet, but Boris is ramping up the No Deal rhetoric
   • He dismisses any changes to the backstop with "the problem is very fundamental. It has been devised by our own country as an instrument of our incarceration"
   • It's leaked that the Brexit Secretary went to Brussels to tell them Theresa May's Deal was dead, five times over in case they didn't quite hear it
   • It's leaked that his team are considering plans to suspend Parliament for two weeks by organising the Queen's Speech for early November
2. So much, so Brexiteer. Which should come as no surprise as he needs to seal the deal with the Conservative membership with as big a margin as possible in order to ensure he moves into Number 10 next Monday
3. But he didn't need to go in quite this hard at quite this moment. Is it just over-excitement from the Brexiteers now that they're closer to the levers of power?
4. Or is it part of a bigger plan to talk tough now, in order to ensure any later climbdowns demonstrate to Brexiteers that he tried hard, but it wouldn't work?
5. Or just to allow all parties to compromise at the last minute, but forcing more from Ireland/EU and thus emerging as #winning #bigly?

Boris is clever, that's for sure. We think the explanation is clearer than all of this.

Provoking opposition allows for you to see the white's of your opponents eyes. What do they really want and what are they prepared to sacrifice to achieve it?

It focuses attention on their inability to agree on anything to stop you. (Note that arch Remainer and legal guru Dominic Grieve admittedyesterday that it's almost impossible to actually stop No Deal).

Boris doesn't need a plan at this point. He just needs to smoke out what he's dealing with. With everyone then revealing their hands, he can set it up so that they wear the blame for whatever happens. If Brexit is stopped, it's because others took that decision out of his hands. If Brexit isn't stopped, and we tip into No Deal, it's because others wouldn't compromise, taking the decision out of his hands.

By taking a tough consistent line, the blame will land elsewhere.

No surprise then that the Times leads today with Team Boris plans to hold an election before summer next year, "while Jeremy Corbyn is still around". And if Boris is forced into one before then? Well then that's everyone else's fault for bringing a Vote of No Confidence in him.

The entire Brexit process has been hallmarked by the sheer unwillingness or capability of anyone to lead it. We have been astonished by no-one stepping into this vacuum of power. But why would they, with the country divided down the middle? That's lose-lose for any politician.

How to step in and emerge victorious? Let the stalemate move the process inexorably along to exiting the EU, while looking like you tried everything to manage it properly. With 50% of the population angry whatever happens, it's vital that the blame falls somewhere else.

Teflon Tony becomes Bacofoil Boris.

Get your tin hats ready, as it appears the market is - yet again - only just coming around to the idea that it's very possible we slide towards No Deal. Not only possible, but pre-programmed by the politicians.

In summertime markets, we are much more likely to hit those pockets of short gamma. That's what took a slug out of GBP yesterday. See how 3 month GBP/USD volatility has been heading higher as spot triggers through psychological big figures:


That doesn't usually happen as you head into the quietest period of the year, not least when volatility is collapsing everywhere now that stocks can keep going higher on those promised Fed rate cuts. Someone has to cover their position and will find it hard to do so as liquidity disappears. We expect GBP can fall even further, even quicker from here, with volatility rising as it does so.

And all because the truth is dawning. We are headed to No Deal and we are about to get a new Prime Minister with an entirely new way of managing the process. Sure, he might fold in the end. But equally likely, he might not. He will simply take up his position, "We are out, do or die", and see what everyone scurries around to do to stop him.

[raptor90]

HS

Il y a des jours ou dès le matin on se demande ou va s'arrêter la connerie de nos politiques qui, chaque jour, vont là ou la main de l'Homme n'a jamais mis le pied

Salade tomate oignon ?

[chipeur]

perso le ressort se comprime pour ca ..........

[mobydick]

chipeur

YM : J'aimerai bien .. suis long 336 sur DB en UT mais il va falloir éclater les 400 ce qui n'est pas évident pour le moment