ARGUMENTS DES BEARS

[serge.harimax]

Current Account (1Q)


Actual: -$176.4BCons.: -$174.1Previous: -$172.9B

The Current Account released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis is a net flow of current transactions, including goods, services, and interest payments into and out of the US. A current account surplus indicates that the flow of capital into the US exceeds the capital reduction. A high reading is seen as positive (or Bullish) for the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).


Read the Current Account data at Bureau of Economic Analysis


US Q1 current account deficit widens to $176.4 bln, 5.0% of GDP
Tue, Jun 17 2008, 12:49 GMT
http://www.afxnews.com



WASHINGTON (Thomson Financial) - The US current account deficit grew more than expected in the first quarter on a rising oil import bill and a fall in income from abroad.


The Commerce Department reported a $176.4 bln deficit, which combines both the trade deficit and the normal US surplus of income earned overseas. That followed a sharp decline in the fourth quarter of last year to $167.2 bln, revised down from $172.9 bln originally reported.


Economists polled by Thomson Reuters IFR Markets had expected what would have been a small drop in the deficit to $172.0 bln.


As a percentage of the US GDP, the higher Q1 deficit was 5.0%, up from 4.8% in Q4.


The trade deficit on goods and services rose just $1.1 bln in the first quarter. The worsening current account balance came primarily from a decrease in the surplus on income to $29.8 bln.


Americans' receipts of interest and dividends and on their direct investment abroad were all down. However, the offsetting income payments on foreign-owned assets in the United States were also down.


Net financial inflows -- foreign investment into the United States -- fell dramatically, by $89.1 bln to $124.3 bln.


That puts the net financial inflows below the $174.9 bln trade deficit.


The decline of the dollar, down 2% against a trade-weighted basket of seven currencies, made investing in the United States less attractive to foreigners.


While the trade deficit has risen in four of the past five quarters, the current account balance has been improving because of the balance of investment flows, which has been in favor of the United States. The Q1 report represents a reversal of that trend.

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.as...

[serge.harimax]

Industrial Production in U.S. Fell 0.2% in May, Fed Says

June 17 (Bloomberg) -- Industrial production in the U.S. unexpectedly fell in May on slower demand for consumer goods including appliances and furniture.

Production in factories, mines and utilities declined 0.2 percent last month after dropping 0.7 percent in April, the Federal Reserve reported today in Washington. Capacity utilization, which measures the proportion of plants in use, fell to 79.4, the lowest since September 2005, when Hurricane Katrina disrupted manufacturing and oil production along the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Factories are trimming output as the housing slump deepens, food and fuel prices climb and credit restrictions make borrowing tougher. The report indicates that gains in foreign demand alone may no longer be enough to prevent a deeper contracting in manufacturing.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&re...

[serge.harimax]

A part GS, y a t il eu une bonne nouvelle ?

Le $ qui fait le yoyo et qui baisse, aussi vite qu'il peut remonter.

????

[chris83]

Emirats arabes unis..c est 11% d inflation

au vu de la data récente,je commence à penser que mon scénario sombre se noircit a grande vitesse....il est évident que le marché n a pas pricé la possibilité d une hyper inflation..qui est quand meme le facteur le plus apparent de ces 3 derniers mois....

En revanche,je n ai aucune idée de ce que ca peut générer sur les indices à LT....si les monniaes commencent à perdre brutalement de la valeur,les indices peuvent ils monter sur une telle situation ? les années 70 avaient vu la remontée des taux et donc la perte des 2/3 environ ....

En 2008,personne ne veut monter les taux,meme si l inflation doit déraper....

Je suis de plus en plus inquiet à cette idée....avec une inflation à 10 ou 12%,ca va etre difficile de générer assez de revenus pour préserver notre qualité de vie.......FLIPPANT

BEN et JCT je vous hais....vous et vos copains banquiers etes 100% responsables de l instabilité actuelle.....lourde responsabilité...

[chris83]

Air Canada supprime des vols et 2000 emplois..bien joué BEN
Fais chier tes voisins aussi....bonne technique....

[serge.harimax]

Natural Gas 13.01 0.07 0.56

C'est pas un record de plus ?

[chris83]

On est d accord HUG...))
et 20% des ricains ont déjà tout depensé du cheque US selon la data
je trouve la data inflation encore plus porteuse d espoir pour nous....parce que personne ne s y attend reellement....

J ai quand meme la sensation que les bulls US faiblissent au fur et à mesure de la data....il va y avoir une flopée de PW....

[serge.harimax]

Chris: J ai du mal à saisir le marché obligataire qui reste à 4.20 sur le 10y US malgré le PPI....

preter à 4.20 avec une inflation à 5% et une monnaie qui se deprecie de 10% par an....étrange....

Bear Market Worsens as Yields Fail to Match Inflation

June 16 (Bloomberg) -- The bear market for U.S. government bonds that began three months ago is just getting started.


For the longest period since 1980, U.S. inflation has been higher than what investors earn on 10-year notes, a sign that yields have further to rise. Treasuries paid 2.88 percentage points more than the consumer price index the past two decades, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Investors who buy $10 million of the securities would lose $1.4 million over the next year if the relationship returns to normal.


``The math doesn't pencil real well,'' said Thomas Atteberry, a partner at Los Angeles-based First Pacific Advisors, who recommended selling 10-year notes when yields fell to a five-year low in March. He co-manages the $2 billion New Income Fund, which beat 96 percent of its peers in the past five years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The combination of rising commodity prices, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke's renewed focus on inflation and his success in reviving capital markets after the collapse of subprime mortgages has turned Treasuries into a quagmire. Investors who bought notes due February 2018 on March 17, just after the Fed helped arrange the bailout of Bear Stearns Cos., have lost 6.2 percent, according to Bloomberg data.

The 10-year note, at 4.22 percent, yields no more than the inflation rate, leaving investors with real returns near zero. Consumer prices have exceeded 10-year yields by an average of 36 basis points since December, Bloomberg data show. In 1980, inflation reached a 33-year high of 14.8 percent and yields averaged 11.4 percent.

`Out of the Bottle'

Ten-year notes rose for the first time in three days after reports showed manufacturing in New York shrank at a faster pace than forecast and confidence among U.S. homebuilders unexpectedly dropped this month.

Consumer prices advanced 4.2 percent in May from a year earlier, the Labor Department said June 13. The rate was above the median forecast of 3.9 percent in a Bloomberg survey of economists, and the highest since January.

Economists at New York-based Morgan Stanley say inflation will reach 5 percent to 5.5 percent this summer, the highest since 1991.

``The global inflation genie is out of the bottle,'' Morgan Stanley analysts led by Joachim Fels, co-head of global economics, said in a June 11 report. Even if the pace moderates in coming months, ``we are likely to see higher average inflation rates,'' they said. Inflation averaged 3.1 percent during the past two decades.

`Unsustainable Levels'

Inflation is also eliminating the rewards of owning U.S. stocks. Standard & Poor's 500 Index shares yield 0.2 percentage point more in profits than the interest on 10-year notes, the smallest advantage since 2004, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The last time corporate earnings returned less than bonds, the index posted its biggest monthly decline in five years.

Ten-year note yields rose 35 basis points last week, according to bond broker BGCantor Market Data. The increase was the biggest since July 2003, when they advanced 37 basis points. The 3.875 percent security due May 2018 declined 2 21/32, or $26.56 per $1,000 face amount, to 96 29/32. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. Yields fell to 4.25 percent today.

Yields touched the highest since December as oil prices climbed to a record $139.12 a barrel this month, and are up from 3.28 percent on March 17, three days before Atteberry said they were at unsustainably low levels.

`Wild Card'

Inflation concerns have become so pervasive that traders are pricing in Fed interest rate increases as soon as this month, according to fed fund futures. Policy makers haven't lifted borrowing costs with economic growth below an annualized 2 percent rate since 1980. The U.S. economy expanded 0.9 percent in the first quarter.

Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show 22 percent odds the Fed will raise rates by at least a quarter-percentage point to 2.25 percent at its June 25 meeting, and the probability of an increase by year-end is 100 percent. Two months ago, traders gave a 90 percent chance that rates would fall.

``The economy will wobble along here, commodity prices are a wild card and the Fed will start tightening, but in a gradual way,'' said Colin Lundgren, head of institutional fixed income in Minneapolis at RiverSource Investments, which manages about $100 billion of bonds. ``Stirring those pieces together, yields need to move higher from levels they're at today.''

Volcker Rally

The last time real yields were this low was just before the start of a bull market for stocks and bonds as Paul Volcker, the Fed's chairman, lowered borrowing costs from a high of 20 percent. Ten-year notes in 1981 peaked at 14 percent and government debt handed investors a record 28 percent return the following year, according to an index compiled by Merrill Lynch & Co. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 12 percent annually in the 10 years through 1990, its best decade at the time.

Yields also fell below inflation for one month in 2005, after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita pushed up U.S. consumer prices by 4.7 percent, the most in 14 years.

Bond-market bulls say inflation can't accelerate for long because Americans aren't getting higher wages. Average hourly earnings rose 3.5 percent in May from a year earlier, the same as in April, which was the lowest yearly increase since February 2006, the Labor Department said June 6.

``I don't see the pressures developing,'' said Francis Mustaro, who heads a group managing about $1 billion at J&W Seligman & Co. in New York. ``So I can't find the justification for a big move up'' in Treasury yields.

Fair Value

Yields on Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, or TIPS, also point to a slowdown in inflation, according to Mustaro. Ten-year TIPS yield 2.52 percentage points less than regular notes, reflecting the inflation rate traders expect over the next decade. That's down from a 1 1/2-year high of 2.56 percent in March.

Treasuries offered the best advantage over inflation in 1983, when 10-year notes yielded 8 percent after subtracting the consumer price index. The current 0.06 percent advantage is lower than in 2003, when the Fed cut borrowing costs to 1 percent to prevent deflation.

``Unless you subscribe to the notion that the economy will slow and help relieve some of the inflation pressures, bond yields look like they need to move higher and fair value is off in the distance,'' said RiverSource's Lundgren. ``As 10-years approach 5 percent they look more interesting.''


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&si...

[chris83]

j ai bien lu ca hier Serge

Il faut bien surveiller les excédents japonais et chinois,les principaux acheteurs (avec les pays petroliers désormais)..si ils se réduisent encore,il risque d y avoir des tensions sur ce marché

Car c est une décision d investissement illogique...

[chris83]

jolie bulle sur les valeurs solaires aussi
Technologie assez simple..;dependante des taux d interets....va y avoir des morts aussi !!

[Bernie_Bruxelles]

Citation de : Hug (au 17-06-2008 16:29:04)

j ai repris une bonne dose de short aujourdhui pour ma part (et une fournee de put jackpot, 4600 echeance vendredi)

---

c'est lequel ton put jackpot stp ?

[serge.harimax]

Pour remplacer les BX4.

http://www.intrade.com/

Most traded financials

[chris83]

les US infatiguables en tout cas....le SP tente une echappée..le CAC aussi essaie de passer 4710....

UK en forte hausse malgré l inflation...article sur le prix de la viande dans le FT....lui aussi en forte hausse...style 15% en 6 mois....

fertilisants aussi en pleine bulle.....200 300 fois le PE....

Toutes les commodities se retournent à la hausse...

CNBC martele le message...pas de hausse des taux..pas d inflation...ca va se remettre tout seul sous les 2%....

[Steve BXL]

Goldman Sachs agrees restructure with former Cheyne Capital SIV
LONDON - Goldman Sachs International has finalised a plan to restructure the $7 billion structured investment vehicle formerly run by London-based hedge fund Cheyne Capital.

SIV Portfolio Plc., formerly Cheyne Finance Plc., said that along with its receivers Deloitte & Touche it has agreed to sell a portion of the portfolio of debt securities held by it to Goldman Sachs.

The rest of the portfolio will be sold in an auction process.

The receivers expect the sales of the securities to occur on or about July 17 and will distribute the net cash proceeds.

They do not anticipate that the proceeds will be sufficient to allow any payment to be made to the holders of the capital notes or to any other party which is subordinate to the senior creditors in the payment priority set out in the security trust deed.

The SIV went into receivership last autumn and its reorganisation is seen as a move that may signal a new phase in the credit crunch turmoil, with other SIVs likely to follow a similar restructure plan.

[Steve BXL]

en grosses lettres:

The SIV went into receivership last autumn and its reorganisation is seen as a move that may signal a new phase in the credit crunch turmoil, with other SIVs likely to follow a similar restructure plan.