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Avez vous une opinion, quand à l'utilisation de ces indicateurs. Vaut il mieux se servir de l'un ou de l'autre?
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Question: Are you keen on supplementing Wave theory with the works of W.D. Gann?
Answer:
My answer to this question may jar some of you. During the first five years of my career, I spent a great deal of time studying concepts presented by W.D. Gann. I read his books - most of which were poorly written and organized - and tried to apply the ideas in real time. At first, the process appeared promising, interesting and challenging, but ultimately unfruitful. By far the most useless and illogical Gann concept is that of "Fan Lines." Moving up at a "45 degree angle" is different (for the same market) depending on the time and price scale employed, even if using the same Daily, Weekly or Monthly bar chart in each instance.
It wasn’t until many years later, after wasting at least half a decade studying the concepts, that I realized the problem with Gann’s work. Nearly all of his techniques produce a plethora of potential outcomes, but leave no certainty. Therefore, instead of narrowing down possibilities, his techniques increase the number of possibilities, preventing one from arriving at any logical or rational game plan for trading.
All good trading techniques must first focus on risk management and risk reduction, then stop movement and lastly position liquidation. No such process is clearly or logically spelled out with any of the Gann techniques I’m familiar with except his Swing Trading process. After 5+ years studying Gann, the only thing I came away with was an upgraded approach for following market advances and declines (based on Swing Trading).
Question:
You don't mention Fibonacci relationships much in your updates. What use or benefit does Fibonacci have in NEoWave?
Answer:
The usefulness and reliability of Fibonacci relationships, as they relate to proper wave counting, is widely misunderstood and greatly exaggerated. This may, in part, be due to the computer revolution since computers can calculate Fibonacci relationships so easily on a chart that their usefulness has been diminished.
To begin, the greatest fallacy regarding Fibonacci relationships is that they should be applied to the corrections following waves-1 and 3 and waves-a (plus wave-c in a Triangle). Fibonacci relationships are NOT reliable when applied to waves going in opposite directions, but ONLY reliable when applied to waves of the same pattern going in the same direction. You might want to read that sentence again to let it sink in.
In large, complex corrective environments (which the S&P has been in the last 7 years), Fibonacci relationships will be less reliable since structure is less reliable. Also, in general, Fibonacci relationships are more useful in impulsions and less useful in corrections.
As they relate to NEoWave, I use Fibonacci relationships as a way of determining the minimum and maximum potential of a move, but not the exact length of a current or future wave. For example, in a Flat, I would not allow wave-c to be less then 38.2% and not more than 261.8% of wave-a. In an implusion, I would not allow wave-5 to be less than 38.2%, and not more than 261.8%, of the next largest wave (either 1 o 3).Commentaire
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Citation de : elfiss (au 26-01-2005 15:24:00)
Avez vous une opinion, quand à l'utilisation de ces indicateurs. Vaut il mieux se servir de l'un ou de l'autre?
les retracements classiques sont 50 % , 33 % , 38.2 % 66 %
61.8 % (après il y a aussi 25 et 75 % mais faut pas surcharger) .Les retracements correspondent aux niveaux sur lesquels les pros entrent ou renforcent leur position .
Il faut donc s'attendre à une réaction positive des indicateurs techniques ou visuels du trader qui va fortement dans le sens de la tendance .
C'est pro de rentrer sur retracement donc le concept est important car le rapport gain/risque est censé être favorable . Mais comme toute technique boursière cela demande de l'habitude de l'expérience mais c'est un concept intéressant à travailler , retenir et approfondir (permet de prendre le train en marche) .
Gann ou Fibo ? Alle zwei , pas de jaloux .
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Les angles de Gann, dépendants de la méthodes de représentations, sont variables pour chaque utilisaturs. Vous vous passerez volontiers de cet indacteur 100% inutile.
Les retracements de Fibonacci ne fonctionnent pas, en tous cas pas plus que n'importe quels niveaux de retracements "entre 1 et 100%" que vous choisirez au hasard vous même.
Préférez donc les niveaux de S/R horizontaux!Commentaire
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Citation de : elfiss (au 26-01-2005 15:24:00)
Avez vous une opinion, quand à l'utilisation de ces indicateurs. Vaut il mieux se servir de l'un ou de l'autre?
Personnellement ce que je regarde c'est le retracement à 50 % et 61.8 % uniquement car une vague 2 retrace 50 ou 61.8 % de la 1 en général ... et c'est sur vague 2 où il est le plus intéressant de rentrer .Les retracements marchent sur le cac , faites toutes vos vagues 2 en daily (swing) et vous verrez les 61.8 et 50 .... très , très svt
mais chacun fait comme il veut .Commentaire
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