ARGUMENTS DES BEARS

[chris83]

Le SP energie au plus bas depuis le 8 fevrier....un des forts supports des indices US qui descend rapidement

il nous faut un peu de data négative...ou une banque avec une AK.....

Peut etre Cisco ce soir......ca devrait être maussade en termes de prévisions...

les US en tout cas arrivent à rebondir sur la ligne du canal (un peu cassée hier soir)....

[chris83]

concernant la conférence,il citait 2030 ou 2100 comme date de départ....
on a donc le temps de rouler en Hummer encore un peu..et avec la clim à fond...en mangeant des sushis !!

[chris83]

SP utilities au plus bas depuis janvier 2007

Baltic dry index 18eme jour de baisse...

ISM services :49.5 en legere hausse....(mais les commandes en baisse ..comme les prix )(inventaires aussi en hausse aussi)

[serge.harimax]

L'Amérique des pauvres:

Pas grave si la bourse monte.

Millions With Chronic Disease Get Little to No Treatment

Millions of Americans with chronic disease like diabetes or high blood pressure are not getting adequate treatment because they are among the nation’s growing ranks of uninsured.

The report, based on an analysis of government health surveys of adults ages 18 to 64 years old, estimated that about 11 million of the 36 million people without insurance in 2004 — the latest year of the study — had received a chronic-condition diagnosis.

“These are people who, with modern therapies, can be kept out of trouble,” said Dr.

The most recent government estimate of the number of people in this country without health insurance is 47 million, which means that if the proportions found in the study have remained constant, there might be nearly 16 million people in this country with a chronic condition but no insurance to pay for medical care.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/05/business/05healt...

[chris83]

va t il baisser les taux ?? une petite derniere surprise de la PPT ......

210 points pour le DJ avant la FED.....pas mal....

Selon le Herald tribune,le quant trading est désormais 48% du volume traité...

c est assez rassurant en fait,car à titre personnel,j ai du mal à comprendre les mouvements du marché US...la fin de séance hier....ou aujourd hui....

idem pour le marché obligataire avec le 10y toujours sous les 4%....

[chris83]

En tout cas,ca crée une nouvelle contraction des excédents....et des liquidités des fonds souverains....

les banques bien sur martelent que ca sonne la fin de l inflation ,ou presque....bien sur,pour faire des AK,une hausse des indices faciliterait la dilution....completement hilarant ...nouveau theme...."don t miss the summer rally"....

désormais c est le prix du commercial real esate qui baisse ...-2.7% ce trimestre....
et British Airways qui remplit moins ses avions...-5.4 % sur le load factor...

[serge.harimax]

Surprenant.

Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business

Business Activity Index at 49.6%
New Orders Index at 47.9%
Employment Index at 47.1%

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector contracted in July

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE (Based on the NMI)

The nine industries reporting growth in July based on the new NMI composite index — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Other Services*; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Educational Services; Utilities; Construction; Accommodation & Food Services; and Health Care & Social Assistance.

The six industries reporting contraction in July are: Finance & Insurance; Public Administration; Wholesale Trade; Information; Transportation & Warehousing; and Retail Trade.

http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm?navItemN...

[serge.harimax]

La totalité des statistiques montrent une décélération lente de l'économie US et un avertissement systématique sur la composante inflationniste de la stat.

Ex:

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP / DOWN IN PRICE, and IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price

A/C Parts; Airfares (5); Air Freight; Auto Fuel (2); Bacon (2); Bath Tissue (2); Batteries; Beef (5); Bond Paper; Bread (3); Building Materials; Butter; Carbon Pipe (2); Cereal (2); Computer Peripherals; Computer Products and Supplies; Copier Paper (6); Copper (3); Crab Legs; Dairy (2); Deliveries (2); Diesel Fuel (10); # 1 Diesel Fuel (3); # 2 Diesel Fuel (3); Flour; Food and Beverage (3); Food Products (3); Freight Charges (2); Freight Fuel Surcharges (2); Fresh Food Items; Fuel (18); Fuel Products (2); Fuel Surcharges (3); Gasoline* (11); Gasoline Related (3); Gloves; Green Beans; # 2 Heating Fuel; Laptop Computers; Lubricants; MRO Supplies; Natural Gas (2); Office Equipment; Paper (9); Paper Products (5); Petroleum Based Products; Plastic Can Liners (2); Plastic Films (2); Plastic Products; Plumbing Supplies; Poly Bags (2); Red Peppers; Shipping Costs (5); Soy; Stainless Steel Products (3); Steel (5); Steel Pipe and Fittings (2); Steel Products (3); Transportation Costs (3); Transportation Services (2); Travel Costs; and Valves.

Commodities Down in Price

Cable (2); Cheese; and Gasoline*.

Members' comments in July indicate concern about inflationary pressures and the effect on the economy.

[serge.harimax]

Surprise 1% fall in German second-quarter GDP

Published: August 5 2008 12:37 | Last updated: August 5 2008 12:37

The German economy contracted by 1 per cent in the second quarter, twice as fast as economists were anticipating, government officials told the Financial Times on Tuesday.

The surprisingly bad quarter-on-quarter figure is the clearest sign to date that Germany’s robust recovery is coming to an end. It will add to recent doubts about the ability of Europe’s largest economy to withstand international economic turbulence, adverse currency movements, high commodity prices and a stubbornly weak consumption at home.

The contraction will be in the order of magnitude of minus 1 per cent,” said a government official who declined to be identified. “Bear in mind, though, that this is partly a correction after the exceptionally good first quarter.”


The Federal Statistical Office, which will publish initial second-quarter gross domestic product figures on August 14, and the economics ministry, which compiles the government’s own growth estimates, both declined to comment.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/60fff408-62de-11dd-9fd0-...

[serge.harimax]

C'est vrai, ça, Chris ?

Inflationary challenge troubles Russia

One of the symptoms of Russia’s booming inflation, according to a popular St Petersburg shoppers’ website, is the “devaluation of the Russian kilogramme”. It refers to the practice that has become common this year for supermarkets to list prices for meat and produce in 100 gramme units instead of kilogrammes, “so as not to shock the citizenry”.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/ce4c0dee-627f-11dd-9a1e-00...

[serge.harimax]

Note: Les Pay options ARM: le client paie ce qu'il veut.


Moody’s & Fitch Join S&P in Massive Alt-A RMBS Downgrade Avalanche

Just one week after S&P placed over 1600 Alt-A RMBS on downgrade review (final downgrades likely within a few days), Moody’s and Fitch get into the act by actually downgrading hundreds of Alt-A RMBS, most issued by the nations largest banks. One of my favorite sites, Mortgage Daily, tracked all the deals.

Remember folks, this is how the real pain of the ’Subprime Implosion’ began; with the downgrades of thousands of subprime RMBS last year. Only now are they finally acknowledging the losses. Although the raters have been pecking on Alt-A and Jumbo Prime for months, this is the first we are seeing of large scale higher-grade RMBS downgrades across the raters.

This is so large-scale and across so many different paper types and banks, I think all three leading raters coming out in the same week is a fairly significant development. Especially given that the Alt-A universe alone dwarfs subprime. When you throw in Jumbo Prime and lower grade conventional prime all previous loss estimates can be thrown out the window.

Everyone seems to think Merrill’s subprime CDO sale marks the bottom of the write-down crisis. I don’t think so but even if it does mark the bottom of the ’subprime’ CDO crisis. Say ‘hello’ to Alt-a and Prime.

Keep in mind, most of the new downgrades you are seeing do not include Home Equity loans (HELOC) or RMBS, which are widely thought to be ‘unratable’. As a matter of fact, on May 2nd S&P announced they have STOPPED rating them all together citing “anomalous and unprecedented borrower behavior”. There are $1.1 to $1.3 TRILLION in second mortgages on bank’s balance sheet mostly still owned by the originating banks. But we will leave this crisis for another story.

Of the stand outs, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Chase, Lehman, Deutsche, Merrill, WaMu and CITI were mentioned often. And in looking at the deals, many consist of Pay Option ARMs, which in my opinion were the most toxic loan every created.

http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/2008/08/04/moodys...

[chris83]

en tout cas l inflation en Russie..c est terrible !! on est au bord de l hyper inflation
on doit etre à 30% par an ou quelque chose comme ca..si le pétrole et le gaz baissent,ca va être explosif

[chris83]

Ca y est...CNBC dit que l inflation est déjà finie et que la FED doit baisser encore les taux à 0%

comme quoi.....toutes les interprétations sont possibles.....le PPI US est à plus de 6% avec des prix importés à +20 %...mais c est fini.....

Rappelons que la FED n a rien vu venir des subprimes et du credit crunch....ni les analystes...ca relativise.....

[serge.harimax]

Fed: No Change in Fed Funds Rate

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Gary H. Stern; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against was Richard W. Fisher, who preferred an increase in the target for the federal funds rate at this meeting.

[chris83]

ca recommence..méga rally avec la FED....
ils sortent du canal baissier une nouvelle fois...
je remarque que quasiment chaque fois,ils traversent tout le canal baissier en une séance pour en sortir....300 or 400 points....

Il est clair que la FED ne va pas remonter les taux avant des mois ou des années....la PPT doit en profiter pour sortir à bon compte et se repréparer