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  • U.S. Considers Bringing Fannie, Freddie on to Budget

    Sept. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The Bush administration is considering whether to fold Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's $5.2 trillion in debt into the federal budget, the White House budget office and the U.S. Treasury Department said.

    ``We're discussing how to present this in the federal budget with Treasury and stakeholders right now, but a conclusion hasn't been determined,'' said Corinne Hirsch, a spokeswoman for the Office of Management and Budget. The Government Accounting Office and other federal agencies are also weighing in on the issue.

    The federal takeover of the government-sponsored enterprises, or GSEs, on Sept. 7 failed to address whether the debt of Fannie and Freddie should be included in the budget, or whether it carries an explicit government guarantee. In an interview this week, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson cited the ``incongruities'' in the law and said ``we should be clear, is there a government guarantee or isn't there?''

    Any decision to add Fannie and Freddie to the budget wouldn't automatically translate into an explicit government backing for the companies' combined $1.7 trillion in unsecured debt and $3.5 trillion of mortgage guarantees. Granting the full faith and credit of the U.S. would require an act of Congress to change the companies' legal status.

    ``You can't even be a senior debt investor at this point beyond the 15 month period because you really don't know if the federal government will back away from its commitment to support the debt,'' said Christopher Sullivan, who oversees $1.3 billion as chief investment officer at United Nations Federal Credit Union in New York.

    Under Control

    The Treasury is talking to the budget office about how to treat Fannie and Freddie in the budget, said Jennifer Zuccarelli, a Treasury spokeswoman. She declined to discuss what options are being considered.

    ``The reason Fannie Mae was originally turned into a GSE was to take it off the budget,'' said Peter Wallison, a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative policy think tank in Washington. Wallison was general counsel for the Treasury during the Reagan Administration. ``The U.S. budget is a completely cash flow system, it's like a Mom and Pop candy store. They don't have any reserves or deferred expenses like private corporations do. It's completely cash in, cash out.''

    The Treasury and Federal Housing Finance Agency put the beleaguered mortgage-finance companies back under federal control for the first time in about 40 years after their $14.9 billion in net losses threatened to further disrupt the housing market. The Treasury committed to invest as much as $200 billion in preferred stock and extend credit through 2009 to prevent a collapse of Fannie and Freddie, protecting investors owning more than $5 trillion of their debt and mortgage-backed securities.

    Treasury Risk

    If the companies were given explicit backing, their debt costs would plunge to bring them closer to the U.S. Treasury debt, Wallison said.

    Fannie's five-year debt trades at 65 basis points more than Treasuries and has averaged 40 basis points more for the past five years.

    Investors in the credit-default swap market for U.S. Treasuries are already concerned a guarantee is coming, demanding record high fees to offer investors protection against losses on Treasuries.

    Five-year credit-default swap contracts on U.S. government debt increased 3.5 basis points on Sept. 9 to a record 18, up from 6 basis points in April, according to CMA Datavision in London. Credit-default swaps pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a country or company fail to adhere to its debt agreements. A rise indicates deterioration in the perception of credit quality.

    Losses

    The U.S. budget deficit will grow next fiscal year to $438 billion from $407 billion, the Congressional Budget Office said Sept. 9, making it harder for President George W. Bush's successor to either cut taxes or increase spending.

    The CBO, a provider of independent assessments on U.S. economic and budgetary decisions to Congress, said the Treasury should incorporate Fannie and Freddie's assets and liabilities into the budget. The CBO, which doesn't set budget policy, will include the projections in its own data starting in January.

    ``What the administration chooses to incorporate in its budget is up to them, but we hope they will agree,'' CBO Director Peter Orszag said in an interview yesterday.

    Though much of the companies' unsecured debt will likely be counted as new federal debt, their mortgage securities won't necessarily translate into the same amount of federal debt since loans and other assets back those liabilities, Orszag said.

    The degree of government control suggests the companies' expenses, including salaries and electricity bills, should be counted as federal spending and all fee revenue and other income from operations should be reflected as revenue, Orszag said.

    CBO will treat Fannie and Freddie's debt similar to that of government-owned electricity producer Tennessee Valley Authority, which Orszag said won't directly affect the federal debt ceiling.

    Any cash investments by the Treasury, such as buying mortgage securities or preferred stock, will directly add to the federal debt outstanding. U.S. officials said Treasury plans to buy $5 billion of the companies' mortgage bonds this month. Fannie and Freddie are also issuing $1 billion each this week in senior preferred shares to Treasury without any cost to the U.S. government.

    Commentaire


    • Gasoline Prices Spike as Ike Threatens Texas

      Gasoline prices jumped to unprecedented levels in the wholesale markets Thursday as Hurricane Ike tore across the Gulf of Mexico, threatening to strike Texas and its refineries.

      Crude oil on the futures market, however, sank below $101 a barrel to its lowest settlement price since late March—a sign that investors are still worried about waning global demand.

      The wholesale price of gasoline ranged from $4 to nearly $5 a gallon in the U.S. Gulf Coast throughout the day on Thursday, said Tom Kloza, publisher and chief oil analyst of the Oil Price Information Service in Wall, N.J. That was up significantly from about $3 to $3.30 a gallon on Wednesday, Kloza said.

      http://www.cnbc.com/id/26662394

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      • WaMu Cut to "Junk," Sees $4.5 Billion Loss Reserve

        Washington Mutual was downgraded to below investment-grade status by Moody's Investors Service, after the largest U.S. savings and loan projected a $4.5 billion third-quarter increase in reserves for bad loans but said it has more than enough capital.


        TheTruthAboutMortgage

        Moody's cut the Seattle-based thrift's senior unsecured debt rating two notches to "Ba2," its second-highest "junk" grade, from "Baa3," with a "negative" outlook. It also lowered its rating for the banking unit to "Baa3" from "Baa2."

        "Washington Mutual's access to the debt and equity markets remains severely constrained," Craig Emrick, a Moody's senior credit officer, said in an interview.

        http://www.cnbc.com/id/26666669/for/cnbc

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        • Hatzius: An Estimate of Mortgage Credit Losses

          by CalculatedRisk

          From Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs chief economist presented at the Brookings conference today: Beyond Leveraged Losses: The Balance Sheet Effects of the Home Price Downturn. Here is a short excerpt on estimating mortgage credit losses (note that Goldman is now forecasting prices to decline another 10%):

          If nominal home prices remain at their 2008 Q2 level until mid-2009, before reverting to a +3% annualized trend, our model implies that mortgage credit losses realized in the 2007-2012 period will total $473 billion. If nominal home prices fall another 10% through the middle of 2009, the model projects losses of $636 billion. Finally, if prices drop another 20%, predicted losses increase to $868 billion. Moreover, the table suggests that losses peak in the third quarter of 2008 if home prices are flat going forward; in the fourth quarter of 2008 if prices drop another 10%; and in the second quarter of 2009 if prices drop another 20%.

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          • nouvel axe de tension

            (CNN) -- Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said Thursday he is recalling his own ambassador from Washington and expelling the U.S. ambassador from Venezuela.

            President Hugo Chavez said he was making the moves "in solidarity with Bolivia and the people of Bolivia."

            "He has 72 hours, from this moment, the Yankee ambassador in Caracas, to leave Venezuela," Chavez told a crowd of supporters.

            The president said he was making the moves "in solidarity with Bolivia and the people of Bolivia."

            Bolivia's Evo Morales accused the United States Thursday of fomenting a coup d'etat by rich eastern department landowners against him, the country's first Indian president.

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            • nouvel axe de tension

              (CNN) -- Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said Thursday he is recalling his own ambassador from Washington and expelling the U.S. ambassador from Venezuela.

              President Hugo Chavez said he was making the moves "in solidarity with Bolivia and the people of Bolivia."

              "He has 72 hours, from this moment, the Yankee ambassador in Caracas, to leave Venezuela," Chavez told a crowd of supporters.

              The president said he was making the moves "in solidarity with Bolivia and the people of Bolivia."

              Bolivia's Evo Morales accused the United States Thursday of fomenting a coup d'etat by rich eastern department landowners against him, the country's first Indian president.

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              • news de Chine

                le yuan faiblit face au dollar mais progresse de 12% face à l euro au Q3..ca augure bien de l inflation
                les retails sales semblent se tenir à un rythme élevée..prod industrielle +12.8%

                Dollar de Taiwan au plus bas de 7 mois

                Enorme crise en Indonésie..leur bourse n en finit plus de baisser...-4% ce matin...Idem au vietnam.-4.2%


                Les US poursuivent leurs tirs de missiles au Pakistan,malgré le refus affiché de ceux ci...Au même Pakistan,premiers problemes au sein de la coalition..un parti menace de partir


                Le maché des municipal swap est mort aux USA....JP Morgan le quitte....enieme marché qui meurt ces temps ci..trop de ressources employées et pas assez de profits dixit la banque...

                A noter dans la campagne US que Palin suit la ligne de Cheney et demande la Georgie dans l Otan....stratégie de la tension ....

                les ventes d actifs contiunuent partout:Sacyr va vendre ses 20% dans Repsol...(une parmi d autres..mais celle ci est vraiment grosse)
                Sterling airlines au Danemark supprime 20 liaisons pour stopper ses pertes...

                Marchés en Asie:les USA ralentissent tout le mouvement,encore une fois....Nikkei en hausse..HK et Chine a peine ...+0.4%

                NXP supprime 4500 postes.....

                La Russie réduit son exposition à la dette des GSE..De 100 à 50M depuis le début de l année...


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                • salut à tous !!

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                  • Ike aux USA

                    la France fait avec les moyens du bord
                    Des orages brefs mais très violents et des pluies diluviennes ont inondé jeudi en fin d'après-midi la région de Cambrai, dans le Nord.

                    Les pluies ont fait brusquement monter le niveau de l'eau dans ce village, provoquant l'effondrement d'un mur d'une habitation. L'occupante des lieux, une femme d'une cinquantaine d'années, a été submergée par les flots.

                    La tornade était plus spectaculaire ..mais bon....

                    Par ailleurs,les 2 routes du pole nord sont ouvertes...recu un mail d un copain de l IFREMER,que ca intéresse.....il m a dit que l eau circule et devrait désormais accélerer la fonte des glaces....effet sur le gulf stream :inconnu...avec un grand point d onterrogation

                    A titre personnel,je suis accablé que cette nouvelle ne soit pas relayée dans les médias....le lien pole nord-Gulf stream est primordial....

                    Les dés roulent......"Tapis" dit l humanité......

                    J ai la sensation très nette que dans 30/50,on parlera de notre période comme la période la plus bête de l histoire récente.....entre Paris Hilton,les salaires des joueurs de foot,la folie du crédit et l absolu mépris pour notre maison (la planete).....

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                    • Sublime nature.....mortelle sans aucun doute.....mais quelle image....

                      tout est dit.....vous vous rappelez mes posts sur un saffir simpson 5 dans le golfe ...Ike sera 3 seulement à priori....mais avec des vagues pire que Katrina...attendues à 7 metres par endroits....

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                      • Bien d’accord avec toi.
                        Nous sommes les passagers inconscients d’un véhicule dont les conducteurs sont des fous furieux.

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                        • Bjr. Chris
                          Dans le cycle...epoque decadente...

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                          • British airways va supprimer 1400 postes de managers

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                            • Je découvre à l'instant l'incroyable manip sur les marchés US lors des 30 dernières minutes hier. Je ne sais pas d'ou ils sortent tout ce pognon quand même ... Ils m'énervent, mais ils m'énervent !!

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                              • Dans un mois le marché s'enolera à son apogée parce que Merill et AIG auront rendu l'âme eux aussi !!(???)

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