Perspectives sur l'or

[ParisBrest]

Bonjour,

[hergastul]

@spadaii, si j'ai bien compris, tu es donc short avec un objectif de 1550?

- en hebdo, la fourchette valide bien la réaction baissière, et la mm20 est autour de 1705 avec une macd baissière...donc je suivrai le support des 1705 en cloture hebdo.


- en daily, macd baissières, on a touché une seconde fois l'ancien haut de couloir baissier devenu "support"...mais plus forts volumes à la baisse sur 1720 puis sur 1695 (rachats?)...donc je suivrai le biseau descendant en formation indiqué sur le graphe de ParisBrest.

vraiment pas top en ce moment pour les longs...eurodol à 1,31 +, et on tourne toujours autour de 1700.
Il faut que les value buyers se manifestent, mais quand ils se manifesteront, ce sera sans doute trop tard ...rien n'empêche un nouveau raid de démolition si on prend un peu de hauteur sans conviction dans les heures qui viennent. Je regarde un peu plus les volumes que d'habitude, tout en mangeant mon pain noir.




Sur Slv, mon ordre de renfort était trop serré sur le support daily, j'ai loupé le plus bas à 5 cents


Je crois que je vais me mettre un bon CD de blues...

[hergastul]

Ceci étant, en ce qui me concerne, et concernant la zone des 1650 $...voici ce que j'ai à dire sur le fond aux Bullion Banks et aux mega hedge funds qui provoquent les récents raids.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V4UfAL9f74I

[jaco1]

Qui vend en douce ? la Corée du Nord ?

Gold Sharply Lower on Technically Related Selling, Led by Mysterious Asian Drop
Tuesday December 4, 2012 2:20 PM

(Kitco News) - Comex gold futures prices ended the U.S. day session sharply lower, hit a fresh four-week low and closed below what was psychological support at the $1,700.00 level. Fresh technical selling pressure that started in thin overnight Asian trading was featured Tuesday. February gold last traded down $24.60 at $1,696.60 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted down $21.20 at $1,695.25. March Comex silver last traded down $0.799 at $32.97 an ounce.

There was speculation in the gold arena Tuesday that the swift drop in prices in early Asian trade was somehow tied to last week’s sharp drop in gold prices. However, that speculation could not be confirmed even though Tuesday’s drop was also a bit mysterious, just like last week’s. It was curious that heavy sell orders hit the gold market Tuesday when New York and London markets were closed and at a time when Asian trading was light.

Trading in both gold and silver markets has become choppy and sideways on the daily charts as the end of the year approaches. It would not be surprising to see this type of back-and-forth trading action continue until the start of the new year—barring an economic or geopolitical surprise to jolt the market place in the coming four weeks.

In overnight news, the Euro currency hit a fresh six-month high against the U.S. dollar and European stocks gained amid ideas the European Union sovereign debt crisis has at least stabilized at present. Traders and investors in Europe welcomed the move by Greece Monday to buy back up to 10 billion Euros of its outstanding bonds at a price from 30 to 40 cents on the dollar. Spanish and Italian bond yields have declined this week, which also suggests a stabilizing overall EU debt crisis.

In the U.S., the focus of the market place remains on the “fiscal cliff” tax increases and spending cuts that is fast approaching. A fresh Republican offer put on the table Monday was not deemed by the Democrats as sufficient. U.S. lawmakers are still jousting on the matter, with the market place now paying less attention to the politicians’ rhetoric. While the market place presently perceives there will be a last-minute agreement among U.S. lawmakers to avoid the fiscal cliff, the overall situation has been a bearish drag on many markets, including the raw commodities and stock markets.

The market place is starting to look ahead to next week’s last Federal Reserve FOMC meeting of the year, on December 10 and 11. The “Operation Twist” program ends and the FOMC members must decide whether to extend the bond-buying program. Many believe the Fed will continue to purchase U.S. Treasuries and implement “QE4” at next week’s meeting. That would be raw-commodity market bullish, including bullish for the precious metals markets.

The U.S. dollar index was lower again Tuesday and hit a fresh six-week low. The greenback bears have downside technical momentum. Nymex crude oil prices were weaker Tuesday. Trading in crude has been choppy recently. The crude oil bears still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage.

The London P.M. gold fixing is $1,697.75 versus the previous London P.M. fixing of $1,720.00.

Technically, February gold futures prices closed nearer the session low Tuesday and hit a fresh four-week low. Gold bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but did fade Tuesday and need to show fresh power soon. The gold bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the November high of $1,757.10. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the November low of $1,674.70. First resistance is seen at $1,700.00 and then at $1,708.00. First support is seen at Tuesday’s low of $1,692.60 and then at $1,685.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.5

March silver futures prices closed nearer the session low Tuesday on profit taking. No serious chart damage occurred. However, the bulls have faded as a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart was negated Tuesday. Bulls do have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but need to show fresh power soon to keep it. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the November high of $34.49 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $32.50. First resistance is seen at $33.50 and then at Tuesday’s high of $33.75. Next support is seen at Tuesday’s low of $32.745 and then at $32.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

March N.Y. copper closed up 20 points at 366.05 cents Tuesday. Prices closed near mid-range and hit a fresh six-week high. Bulls have gained good upside near-term technical momentum recently and have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 370.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 350.00 cents. First resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 367.85 cents and then at 370.00 cents. First support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 363.35 cents and then at 360.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

[hergastul]

Ceux qui vendent en douce sont toujours les mêmes : les gros hedge funds + bullion banks qui coopèrent pour shooter les prix à un moment donné et déclencher la cascade de stop loss qui se trouvent en dessous.

A un moment les banques centrales et les "value buyers" profitent du trou d'air et rachètent massivement.
Question is : quand décideront-ils que la fête est finie? J'attend les renforts sur 1667 en ce qui me concerne.

[spadaii]

Citation de : hergastul (au 05-12-2012 09:37:10)

@spadaii, si j'ai bien compris, tu es donc short avec un objectif de 1550?

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@hergastul , je n'ai aucune position sur l'or. Je constate deux choses:
- l'or est en range
- historiquement il est fort (donc pas de short pour moi)

Personnelement je ne shorterais pas l'or en swing. Par contre un achat dans la zone 1550 semble être un bon point d'entré pour du swing avec un objectif haut de range.

[hergastul]

Ok thanks

Citation de : spadaii (au 05-12-2012 11:37:07)

Citation de : hergastul (au 05-12-2012 09:37:10)

@spadaii, si j'ai bien compris, tu es donc short avec un objectif de 1550?

---

@hergastul , je n'ai aucune position sur l'or. Je constate deux choses:
- l'or est en range
- historiquement il est fort (donc pas de short pour moi)

Personnelement je ne shorterais pas l'or en swing. Par contre un achat dans la zone 1550 semble être un bon point d'entré pour du swing avec un objectif haut de range.

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[hergastul]

Eh ben finalement je suis passé long sur le silver à 32.73 pile...quelques pips au dessus de mon tracé de couloir haussier daily (32.65).
Si ça continue de gerber, en dessous, je ne vois que 32.20 pour contenir le massacre.
Espérons que ça tienne, stop loss pas très loin malgré la volatilité...alleluïa.

[M S]

j'ai une alerte qui s'allume en vert, une alarme qui sonne, des voyants qui s'affolent

je vais acheter la panique



http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-05/golden-sh...

Via Goldman:

Gold prices range bound in 2012 despite perfect set up

Gold prices have remained range bound in 2012, despite a steady decline in US real rates and rise in central bank holdings that would ordinarily be supportive. To understand this dislocation we expand our modeling of gold prices to include the impact of the US Federal Reserve easing. We find that gold prices “look through” easing that does not require Fed balance sheet expansion –like Operation Twist – increasing instead on announcements of easing through expansion on the Fed’s balance sheet.



Improving US growth outlook offsets further Fed easing

Our economists forecast that the US economic recovery will slow early in 2013 before reaccelerating in the second half. They also expect additional expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet. Near term, the combination of more easing and weaker growth should prove supportive to gold prices. Medium term however, the gold outlook is caught between the opposing forces of more Fed easing and a gradual increase in US real rates on better US economic growth. Our expanded modeling suggests that the improving US growth outlook will outweigh further Fed balance sheet expansion and that the cycle in gold prices will likely turn in 2013. Risks to our growth outlook remain elevated however, especially given the uncertainty around the fiscal cliff, making calling the peak in gold prices a difficult exercise.



Gold cycle likely to turn in 2013; lowering gold price forecasts

We lower our 3-, 6- and 12-mo gold price forecasts to $1,825/toz, $1,805/toz and $1,800/toz and introduce a $1,750/toz 2014 forecast. While we see potential for higher gold prices in early 2013, we see growing downside risks. As a result, we find that the risk-reward of holding a long gold position is diminishing and recommend rolling our long Dec-12 COMEX gold position into a long Apr-13 position and selling a $1,850/toz call to finance a $1,575/toz put to protect against a decline in gold prices. Since 2009, this strategy achieved a better Sharpe ratio than a long gold position.

[ParisBrest]

Bonjour,

Hebdo
Phase4.....sous la mm20
NX MACD

Daily
Phase2




H4

Toujours sous une oblique baissière..

[Kad]

Gold Futures Daily Volume Record

Gold Futures set a new daily volume record of 486,315 contracts traded on November 28, surpassing the previous record of 484,721 contracts traded on May 29.

Silver Options Open Interest Record

The Silver Options open interest record was broken six times in November 2012, setting a new record of 273,947 contracts on November 26 and surpassing a previous record of 259,527 contracts on May 24, 2011.

[ParisBrest]

Citation de : ParisBrest (au 06-12-2012 08:50:23)




H4

Toujours sous une oblique baissière..

---

Bonjour

On grignotte l'oblique baissière
Début de translation horizontale...

[jaco1]

Ce qui est assez étonnant depuis quelque temps (pas toujours vrai mais souvent) le gold monte quand l'euro baisse et inversement ...???

[M S]

"lachez cet investissement tout pourri" dixit Stéphane SOUMIER ce matin après fiorentino

La guerre de l'or a commencé
Edito fiorentino 07/12/2012 à 07h23

Nous devrions avoir une belle bataille en 2013 sur l'or. Les bulls et les bears vont s'affronter avec à leur tête deux acteurs majeurs, du côté des baissiers Goldman Sachs qui voit la fin du cycle de hausse des matières premières, du côté des haussiers Morgan Stanley qui voit la hausse de l'or reprendre du fait de la baisse du dollar et de la hausse de la demande physique. Choisissez votre camp.
L’or hésite autour des 1700 dollars l’once depuis plusieurs semaines
Et on peut dire qu’il y a pour 2013 une bataille de l’or qui s’annonce. Une bataille entre les bulls, les haussiers, et les bears, les baissiers. Après sa flambée, l’or s’est replié et on le sent perdu. A la recherche d’une direction. Et Mercredi on pensait avoir trouvé le signal. Goldman Sachs un des acteurs les plus importants du marché publiait une note pour annoncer la fin du cycle de hausse des matières premières et en particulier la fin de la hausse de l’or. Les bears avaient gagné un allié de poids.

Et renversement de situation hier…
Exactement. Le meilleur ennemi de Goldman, Morgan Stanley s’est précipité pour sortir sa note le lendemain de Goldman. Et pour Morgan Stanley la tendance sur l’or pour 2013 sera la hausse…Résultat des courses, nous voilà à nouveau perdus. Ceux qui ont de l’or dorment dessus mais se sentent moins à l’aise qu’il y a quelques mois, ceux qui voulaient en acheter attendent. Bref, la bataille de l’or est devenue une guerre de tranchées.

Quels sont les arguments avancés par les deux camps ?
Pour Goldman la hausse de l’or vient de l’utilisation à répétition de la planche à billets par la banque Centrale Américaine, or la FED n’aura plus à intervenir car la croissance aux Etats Unis va repartir, pour Morgan Stanley, les taux aux Etats Unis vont rester à zéro, le dollar va baisser, et les Indiens vont s’offrir plus de bijoux en or en 2013. A vous de choisir votre camp. Moi j’ai choisi le mien. Comme en 2012, je ne toucherai pas au marché de l’or…




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tout pourri ?

[ParisBrest]

http://www.24hgold.com/francais/actualite-or-argen...